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Re: Corona autism

Postby Brati007 » 19 Mar 2020 18:39

Dr_StarStart wrote:I wonder, do any of you donate blood? Because I am thinking about doing it sometime soon and I wonder what your experiences are.


its extremely exhausting. but you are almost at 100% again after 24-48h with some healthy food and alot of water.
we got some money for certain amounts too but you get tested before to verify your blood is suitable.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby MeisterPiffer » 19 Mar 2020 21:20

Recently did my 50th donation. Be sure to drink enough in front. Would suggest 1.5, better 2 litres. Good breakfast and lunch and you're good to go.
Can always recommend at least to try.

@ Brati: not exhausting for me although I notice, If I go for a run afterwards (which is not recommended) I'm not as fit as usual, even if it's the next day.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 19 Mar 2020 22:04

We're heading for 1 million global cases on the 31st of March at current speed.
China is standing almost still at just over 80k cases but the cases outside of China are increasing by 1,17 times every day since the 9th of March.

9.3 - 33627 cases outside of China according to Worldometers statistics. Multiply by 1,17 and keep multiplying your own number for every new day. The accuracy so far is pretty good.

Real number according to worldometers in brackets.
10.3 - 33627 * 1,17 = 39343 (38170)
11.3 - 39343 * 1,17 = 46032 (45421)
12.3 - 46032 * 1,17 = 53857 (53763)
13.3 - 53857 * 1,17 = 63013 (64659)
14.3 - 63013 * 1,17 = 73725 (75809)
15.3 - 86258 (88733)
16.3 - 100922 (101609)
17.3 - 118079 (117344)
18.3 - 138153 (137894)

Today's prediction is 161639. There are usually a few more cases coming in later before the reset but currently we're standing at 160739 on worldometers.

The following numbers with the 1,17 prediction would be 189117, 221267, 258883, 302893, 354385, 414631, 485118, 567588, 664078, 776971, 909057 (30th of March).
Add the current 81k in China on top of that and we're touching the 1 million boundary.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Dr_Badthur » 19 Mar 2020 23:09

phpBB [video]


haven't watched it yet, but it's kurzgesagt so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Paris_Hilton » 20 Mar 2020 01:12

tbh i think china hides the number. Find it hard to believe that it is spreading here and there suddenly it evaporates. I don't think that is how viruses work (i have no knowledge - if someone is a virulogue pls elaborate)
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Dr_Badthur » 20 Mar 2020 01:17

china, censorship? no way Kappa
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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 20 Mar 2020 01:58

Paris_Hilton wrote:tbh i think china hides the number. Find it hard to believe that it is spreading here and there suddenly it evaporates. I don't think that is how viruses work (i have no knowledge - if someone is a virulogue pls elaborate)


Total lockdown does that. A virus can't spread if the people aren't moving outside their doors at all. And considering it's China they took pretty drastic measures to make sure people weren't moving around, including welding the door shut if people attempted breaking quarantine.

Italy should see their number of new cases begin to drop in the next week as well.
Based on data from China however reliable that is, although the real cases started dropping immediately after they entered full lockdown it took another 12 days before that was reflected in the daily new cases beginning to drop. Italy still has a few days to go until that point.

The problem is that you can't open stuff back up, even China can't. The moment they want to go back to anything resembling normality the virus will flare up again.
We are in quite a conundrum for the next year or more until we have a vaccine.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Bronn1 » 20 Mar 2020 14:55

An italian oficial was saying yesterday that only about 60% of the population respects the quarantine, the others still move around, which makes it difficult in stoping the virus spreading!
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Dr_Oolen » 20 Mar 2020 17:24

yeah, if one looks at some graphs to see when the daily increase of infected started going down in chaina/korea, italy should have already been going down, but they arent. Now if someone has the information when chaina/korea/italy started quarantine/isolation efforts one could deduce to some degree if chaina is lying a lot or not. But id tend to believe the chaina numbers, i mean the restrictions they put in are on a different level compared to what is in EU. Also yeah, id expect some restrictions (mainly movement from/to countries and some selective quarantine zones, while the rest of a country can kinda do whatever as long as they are mindful of hygiene and do some reasonable social distancing + masks on people that get into contact with many mr sexiіs) to be in place until a vaccine is mass produced, so maybe a year and a half.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 20 Mar 2020 17:45

Won't have time for more than a quick check but Wuhan went into lockdown on January 23rd.
After that the measures were kinda staggered so difficult to say for sure but...
All of Hubei was on lockdown by 16th of February

Italy's lockdown was in place on the 10th of March.

Ok here's the graph I was thinking of. Yellow bars are new reported cases, Grey bars were made by interviewing people and asking them when they got symptoms and counting back so those are "true cases".
"True cases" dropped off immediately after the lockdown but the reported cases kept climbing for another... 12 days.

Image

Italy has about 2 more days of growth left according to that. If their measures are as effective as Hubei's.
We'll see what happens.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Dr_Oolen » 20 Mar 2020 18:30

Neat, thonks, we shall soon see then.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby McMokka » 20 Mar 2020 18:45

One cant forget that only confirmed cases are tracked. So while the estimate of 1.17 might work atm, one can only imagine what the real numbers in america are for example.
I dont think Germany has the most new cases each day, because it spreads faster here, but rather because we are testing more, similar to south korea in the beginning.
Read an interview today of Dietmar Hopp (co-founder of SAP, invested a lot of money in one of his companies recently, which is trying to create a vaccine), that a vaccine >>could<< be ready for the masses in autumn. Would be pretty nice.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Dr_Oolen » 20 Mar 2020 21:00

McMokka wrote:One cant forget that only confirmed cases are tracked. So while the estimate of 1.17 might work atm, one can only imagine what the real numbers in america are for example.
I dont think Germany has the most new cases each day, because it spreads faster here, but rather because we are testing more, similar to south korea in the beginning.
Read an interview today of Dietmar Hopp (co-founder of SAP, invested a lot of money in one of his companies recently, which is trying to create a vaccine), that a vaccine >>could<< be ready for the masses in autumn. Would be pretty nice.

i heard (well, youtube sources Kappa) that technically vaccines already exist, but they have to be tested for at least a year to make sure they dont kill people :XD
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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 20 Mar 2020 21:38

Dr_Oolen wrote:i heard (well, youtube sources Kappa) that technically vaccines already exist, but they have to be tested for at least a year to make sure they dont kill people :XD


That is correct, there are already candidate vaccines. Developing one isn't very time consuming. A few months at most.
It's the testing phase that takes time because there are very stringent phases you have to go through before your vaccine can be given to healthy people en masse.
1 year+ is the time of the testing phases, not the development of the vaccine itself.
As far as I'm aware this cannot be sped up but I could be mistaken.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby McMokka » 20 Mar 2020 22:35

AngelofAwe wrote:
Dr_Oolen wrote:i heard (well, youtube sources Kappa) that technically vaccines already exist, but they have to be tested for at least a year to make sure they dont kill people :XD


That is correct, there are already candidate vaccines. Developing one isn't very time consuming. A few months at most.
It's the testing phase that takes time because there are very stringent phases you have to go through before your vaccine can be given to healthy people en masse.
1 year+ is the time of the testing phases, not the development of the vaccine itself.
As far as I'm aware this cannot be sped up but I could be mistaken.


Well it can be sped up by cutting red tape for pharma industry. Question is at which point is it worth it having a tiny risk in the vaccines vs making people wait for it for several months longer to get rid of the risk.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 20 Mar 2020 22:49

McMokka wrote:Well it can be sped up by cutting red tape for pharma industry. Question is at which point is it worth it having a tiny risk in the vaccines vs making people wait for it for several months longer to get rid of the risk.


True but this is already sped up. Never in history has a vaccine been pumped out so quickly, usually it takes several years before it's ready.
I'm going to assume that any further cuts are basically throwing safety out the window, they need those tests for approval... and obviously if the vaccine turned out to have adverse effects because it was rushed we can imagine the pandemonium that would cause.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Paris_Hilton » 20 Mar 2020 22:55

Well the Virus is know and so is it RNA (the chinese shared it) and the germans (and i suppose other countries) have been working. In fact they know what works against but as said.. you have to test it what behaviour it has on living tissue. So you have to kind of test it on other primates and animals.. that in best case takes 4 months.

Question is at which point is it worth it having a tiny risk in the vaccines vs making people

What is if the vaccine goes wrong on humans and becomes dangerous ?


btw here an article:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articl ... po=2.50000
i cite the conclusion:
Over the past 50 years the emergence of many different coronaviruses that cause a wide variety of human and veterinary diseases has occurred. It is likely that these viruses will continue to emerge and to evolve and cause both human and veterinary outbreaks owing to their ability to recombine, mutate, and infect multiple species and cell types.

Anthony R. Fehr and Stanley Perlman doi: 10.1007/978-1-4939-2438-7_1
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Last edited by Paris_Hilton on 20 Mar 2020 22:59, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby peregrine » 20 Mar 2020 22:56

Paris_Hilton wrote:What is if the vaccine goes wrong on humans and becomes dangerous ?

Zombies? >:D
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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 20 Mar 2020 23:01

Guys really, don't be too optimistic about the timeline of a vaccine.
As previously mentioned, we already have the vaccines (well some of them) ready to go into trials right now. I believe some have even started trials.
And despite that I have yet to find a single medical professional that says we'll have the vaccine this year. It truly appears that is impossible.
I'll refer to Fauci here.

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Re: Corona autism

Postby Dr_Oolen » 20 Mar 2020 23:47

brb waiting to get the vaccine in 5 years to see if everyone who gets it as soon as possible starts dying Kappa or noKappa?
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