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Re: Corona autism

Postby Professor_Cunningham » 24 Mar 2020 01:37

Paris_Hilton wrote:Also interesting, why does NL do so poor at the moment ?


NL tried the Herd immunity like the UK and now they are both fucked in the next 21 days.
Belgium People where actually going over the Border into NL restaurants, while the ones in Belgium are closed because of lock down. :Oo:


I use the 2 Sites for total Numbers:

Global Numbers by Johns Hopkins University:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

You klick on the Red Circle for additional information.

Official German Number by RKI (Rober Koch Institut)

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4/page/page_0/

- at Top right corner you can Filter between Stats and administrative districts

But be carefull about the RKI Number, since there is a Law for everything in Germany. We also have one how they have to report the Numbers.
Hospitals report them to administrative districts. Useally at the end of there work day they report them to the States.
And if we are lucky the state Agencys will the report them during the next day and not at the end of if to the goverment agencys and the RKI.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Dr_StarStart » 24 Mar 2020 01:42

Professor_Cunningham wrote:
Paris_Hilton wrote:Also interesting, why does NL do so poor at the moment ?


NL tried the Herd immunity like the UK and now they are both fucked in the next 21 days.
Belgium People where actually going over the Border into NL restaurants, while the ones in Belgium are closed because of lock down. :Oo:

not only that, the people here just dont take it serious enough and we were too late with the measurements. The herd immunity thing is just something our prime minister said, which wasn't our goal at all. he just stupid
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Re: Corona autism

Postby dacorny » 24 Mar 2020 02:28

South Korea did a lot of infection tests on their population very early, so they could faster isolate infected persons.

On germany, i dont know, specially when you consider how careless people were mid last week.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Bronn1 » 24 Mar 2020 15:51

The difference between the death procentage between the nations could be found in the culture of those respective countries (or so i've read, but it makes sense).
While southern countries like italy, spain and france have a culture where the old are a part of the family until they die, in the sense that they live together, apparently in germanic/northern countries that is not the norm, so the elderly are more separated from the active young people that are most likely to get the virus, as shown by your statistics.
Also, all the people in these countries are highly social (especially the elderly) and tend to not respect authority, so when the government said you should stay inside (before the actual quarantine) a lot more people (elderly including) have disrespected this than in the northern/germanic countries.
But this is just a theory i kept reading. It might not be true, or it might be true but not as a sole explanation.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Paris_Hilton » 24 Mar 2020 16:21

While southern countries like italy, spain and france have a culture where the old are a part of the family until they die, in the sense that they live together, apparently in germanic/northern countries that is not the norm, so the elderly are more separated from the active young people that are most likely to get the virus, as shown by your statistics.
Also, all the people in these countries are highly social (especially the elderly)


Well since i am from the south (Albania) that is very true :D
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Re: Corona autism

Postby dacorny » 24 Mar 2020 16:25

Yes, that maybe a reason, but on the other side, the spanish military, while helping to disinfect and elderly home in spain, found several dead bodies, while the rest was infectet including the personal.

Also just some number grunch, italy went with 5000 beds for intensiv care, germany on the other hand had 28000 when it started and we are now on 40000 beds.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Brati007 » 24 Mar 2020 18:20

and there is more to come, a certain bedmanufactory ordered 15k more on monday.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 24 Mar 2020 18:32

40,000 is pretty OP.

Finland had about 300 in the country according to information I searched up myself. Working on getting capacity up to 1000 now.
Not sure if we can get ventilators from anywhere though. Everybody wants them and few companies have the know-how to build them.

However if we do the math for Finland with 5,5 million people and we do a WORST CASE calculation that's 70% (3.850.000) falling ill.
According to the current data that almost definitely gives too high of a number 5% require intensive care. Italy has 10% atm but let's go with the global 5%. (192.000)

Of course, not all of them will be sick at the same time but those who do end up in intensive care stay there for 2 weeks to several months based on what we've seen so far.

Let's make an assumption that each patient ONLY needs 2 weeks of ICU treatment and rather than having a peak and a curve we get a nice horizontal line where the patients are as spread out as possible and we expect this to last 1 full year.
That's 24x 2-week periods. (I know, not exact, I'm just counting 1 month as 4 weeks for simplicity) 192,000/ 24 = 8000.

That's 8 times our future capacity. If we evenly distributed patients over an entire year.
In reality the amount of people falling ill will follow a normal distribution curve which gives a much higher peak AND the epidemic is unlikely to be spread out over a whole year.

Basically... let's just not allow it to spread that far or we're fucked.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Brati007 » 24 Mar 2020 19:45

from what i have seen so far sweden and norway and finland give no shit about corona, so it gonna hit like a truck in my pov.

btw with monday the first big companies in germany started to fire employees cause of the corona break. its starting to end.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 24 Mar 2020 19:52

Brati007 wrote:from what i have seen so far sweden and norway and finland give no shit about corona, so it gonna hit like a truck in my pov.


Please don't group us with the Swedes. Sweden has gone from cultural suicide to attempting pandemic suicide but the other Nordics aren't on that sinking ship.
Sweden is definitely an outlier not closing ANYTHING.
All the other Nordics have at least to some extent closed borders, schools and limited gatherings.

In Finland plans are now being made to quarantine our capital region with 1/3 of the entire population.
Borders are closed, schools above 3rd grade are closed, gatherings of over 10 people are banned, libraries, museums, theaters and any other public buildings are closed and restaurants and cafes are about to be ordered closed too.

We "only" have 800 cases compared to the 2k of the other Nordics though so we're acting a little sooner.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Professor_Cunningham » 24 Mar 2020 21:22

Maybe you are also doing better because Social Distance is a bit more respected in Finland

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Re: Corona autism

Postby McMokka » 25 Mar 2020 00:14

Brati007 wrote:from what i have seen so far sweden and norway and finland give no shit about corona, so it gonna hit like a truck in my pov.

btw with monday the first big companies in germany started to fire employees cause of the corona break. its starting to end.


Not what I heard from our business partners. As far as I know at the moment there is a lot of consolidation going on and conservative planning when trying to guesstimate the point from which a normal workday can be reintroduced. And while a lot of projects get postponed, the higher ups know that with less people working they will lose compared to other companies in the race back up to speed when all panic over. That's why most rely on reducing hours of all workers so as few as possible lose their jobs.
That was the feedback I have been getting from the contacts I have been talking to the last few days from several big companies.
Not saying that no one will lose his or her job, but the general consensus is to preserve the ability to act quick as soon as the situation is stabilized.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Brati007 » 26 Mar 2020 17:17

surely. those companies got rid of nasty positions pretending its cause of corona. as in they dont want them back when things go back to normal, if things go back to normal that is.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 27 Mar 2020 01:34

AngelofAwe wrote:
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Another 5 days have passed so time for another update once again.
USA USA USA!!! Finally #1 in the world at something again.

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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 27 Mar 2020 12:49

phpBB [video]
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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 31 Mar 2020 23:10

Another 5 days, another update.
Limiting to top 15 countries from now on to make it slightly easier to manage.

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Re: Corona autism

Postby McMokka » 31 Mar 2020 23:42

AngelofAwe wrote:
AngelofAwe wrote:Image


Here's the next 5 day change. 16.3 on the left, 21.3 on the right.
As for the "1,17 prediction model" we're still pretty much on track. The real cases are about 2,5k ahead of the prediction. We're still on course for 1 million cases on the 30th of this month.

Image



We are at 850k on the 31st of the month, 780k yesterday. That is far below the 1,17 prediction. The measurements, that were taken seem to work.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Dr_Badthur » 01 Apr 2020 00:13

Yep, just read an Irish article that said the number of cases expected are (significantly?) lower than predicted, that restrictions are working well (at least here)
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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 01 Apr 2020 00:53

McMokka wrote:We are at 850k on the 31st of the month, 780k yesterday. That is far below the 1,17 prediction. The measurements, that were taken seem to work.


Yes, the global rate of increase slowed down beginning from the 23rd/24th (which means due to measures taken somewhere around the 12th and later) and we're now 200-300k off where we would have been otherwise.
Of course, some of that could be due to testing not scaling up at the same rate but if we're looking at the numbers of new cases and deaths it seems like especially the worst hit areas have managed to lower the numbers with their lockdowns.

We should have hit 1 million on the 30th and we've delayed it to what seems like 3rd of April (maaaaybe late 2nd of April, will be close), this is a significant shift even if it doesn't sound like it.

Within a couple months we should begin to see phase 2 as nations that have brought the numbers down by lockdown attempt to gradually open up again.
I'm very curious to see how that works out.

This does not mean it's over, this may only the beginning of a 1 year whack-a-mole scenario.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby McMokka » 01 Apr 2020 15:11

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