Paris_Hilton wrote:Prepare how? The problem is the number of ventilators, intensive care beds and medical staff
Okay from the data that you show.. Explain to me what Germany and South Korea are doing right because atm
South Korea has
ACTIVE CASES
5,684
Currently Infected Patients
5,625 (99%)
in Mild Condition
59 (1%)
Serious or Critical
Germany
ACTIVE CASES
28,480
Currently Infected Patients
28,457 (100%)
in Mild Condition
23 (0%)
Serious or Critical
That does not look like they are having issue with running out of beds
Sure. South Korea has 175 confirmed infected per 1 million inhabitants. Or 0,0175% of the population.
Considering they test far more than any other nation we can assume that this is not very far from the actual truth.
~0,02% isn't going to fill the ICU beds.
Germany is proportionally at about double SK's number with 347/million. Probably more considering more lacking testing but this is still a VERY low number. 0,04% of the population.
We are not in the middle stage of a pandemic, we are in the absolute beginning. These same studies (and also Merkel's official statement if I recall correctly) are suggesting we may see 60-70% of the population catch it within the next year.
UK studies again suggest that the peak in their nation could be 20% of the workforce being ill simultaneously.
20% or 0,04%. That's why your beds are not full.
Even Italy and Spain are only very locally over capacity at this time. Lombardy ran out of ICU beds quite recently. The rest of Italy is not in that situation... yet.
As for why the serious conditions are such a small percentage in SK/Germany that is indeed something there are many theories about.
For example, they could have a less aggressive strain of the virus than places like Italy. Any virus mutates all the time and we know significant changes did happen in the genome already.
Or more likely, especially in Germany's case they could be much earlier in their outbreak. It seems to take 2-3 weeks before people start to go critically ill en masse, the virus had been around for a long time in Italy and was merely discovered late.
It is quite likely that Germany is just lagging behind and will see worse outcomes in the next weeks but we can always hope that's not the case. However I do agree I've found Germany's numbers strange since the beginning.
In South Korea's case it may just be because of their extensive testing, they must have found FAR more asymptomatic and mild cases than other nations.
Despite that however their mortality rate is climbing. It was 0,6% a couple of weeks ago and it has now crept over 1,2%.
Other factors are age. How do the age groups infected differ between the nations? I have not seen any data on that.
Or how do different nations define serious/critical cases? Are there differences in that?
For example, Germany claims to have only 23 cases that are serious or critical... yet 29 people died there today. Seems like an odd discrepancy too, no?