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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 21 Mar 2020 02:13

Well we're accelerating past the 1,17 rate now... prediction says 189k. Reality says 194k.
Either testing is picking up in pace or growth is accelerating.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Brati007 » 21 Mar 2020 11:24

we as in earth or we as a nation?

i honestly miss my supplyroutes and idc about weak and/or old ppl dying. furthermore i doubt all this "training" will give us better chances facing a real pandemic threat.

normally i am not this kind of guy but blowing up this theme is very fitting in political regards, i havent heard shit about turkey, global climachange or brexitdetails.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 21 Mar 2020 11:43

Brati007 wrote:we as in earth or we as a nation?

i honestly miss my supplyroutes and idc about weak and/or old ppl dying. furthermore i doubt all this "training" will give us better chances facing a real pandemic threat.

normally i am not this kind of guy but blowing up this theme is very fitting in political regards, i havent heard shit about turkey, global climachange or brexitdetails.


We as in the world outside of China, I'm not really looking at individual nations and their rates.

Edit: They made the video private
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Brati007 » 21 Mar 2020 12:00

saw the vids and yes its horrible.
dont get me wrong, i cared about hygiene way before corona and everything we should "do" now, i actually consider normal behaviour.
it can be mindblowing how many ppl underestimate their own "dirtyness".
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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 21 Mar 2020 12:06

Brati007 wrote:saw the vids and yes its horrible.
dont get me wrong, i cared about hygiene way before corona and everything we should "do" now, i actually consider normal behaviour.
it can be mindblowing how many ppl underestimate their own "dirtyness".


The situation is going to worsen over the next few months so don't expect your supply chains to be back anytime soon unfortunately.
People still incorrectly believe that this only endangers the elderly... unfortunately not so. When people begin to get it as it arrives in force in their own regions I'll be curious to see how they react.

The more the case numbers climb the lower the age of the serious cases goes as the hospitals can't cope or treat everybody.
Some studies suggesting serious cases may end up with permanent lung damage as in SARS/MERS even if they manage to recover aren't encouraging either and 20-40 year olds (although in low numbers) increasingly end up on respirators.
It does still remain true that it's the elderly that die though. The younger go critically ill but they recover if the medical care is available. It won't be if we let this run free though.
It probably won't be enough even with our massive restrictions but only time will tell where we are in 2 months time.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Brati007 » 21 Mar 2020 12:40

AngelofAwe wrote:
Brati007 wrote:saw the vids and yes its horrible.
dont get me wrong, i cared about hygiene way before corona and everything we should "do" now, i actually consider normal behaviour.
it can be mindblowing how many ppl underestimate their own "dirtyness".


The situation is going to worsen over the next few months so don't expect your supply chains to be back anytime soon unfortunately.
People still incorrectly believe that this only endangers the elderly... unfortunately not so. When people begin to get it as it arrives in force in their own regions I'll be curious to see how they react.

The more the case numbers climb the lower the age of the serious cases goes as the hospitals can't cope or treat everybody.
Some studies suggesting serious cases may end up with permanent lung damage as in SARS/MERS even if they manage to recover aren't encouraging either and 20-40 year olds (although in low numbers) increasingly end up on respirators.
It does still remain true that it's the elderly that die though. The younger go critically ill but they recover if the medical care is available. It won't be if we let this run free though.
It probably won't be enough even with our massive restrictions but only time will tell where we are in 2 months time.


i am aware of the delaying strategy. yet, i dont like it cause the damage to the economy will be unrepairable. now remember history for a moment, after the spanish flu the economy went dog shit and this created the opportunity for a person like hitler to get power. i honestly thing that this will make the bladder blop again and with parties like AFD already reaching 35% in my area, you dont have to be a genius to know what gonna happen ...
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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 21 Mar 2020 12:51

Brati007 wrote:i am aware of the delaying strategy. yet, i dont like it cause the damage to the economy will be unrepairable. now remember history for a moment, after the spanish flu the economy went dog shit and this created the opportunity for a person like hitler to get power. i honestly thing that this will make the bladder blop again and with parties like AFD already reaching 35% in my area, you dont have to be a genius to know what gonna happen ...


Sure, we have no clue about the unintended consequences and this will be an economic AND health crisis of a magnitude we have not experienced in our lifetime.
However even if we took no action, would things really go on as usual?
Would the workplaces keep running and the markets remain stable?

Even as tens of millions die globally with hundreds of millions hospitalized?
Or would that cause even more panic and economic collapse?

What I think (and I'm no expert) is that what we need to do is basically copy South Korea. They've managed to slow and limit the spread without having the entire country grind to a halt. They had the experience from SARS and took action early.
The problem is... can we copy it and is it too late for most of Europe to do so?
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Brati007 » 21 Mar 2020 14:35

well considering the abilities of our government i highly doubt we can copy that. we dont have the option for datarecording and analyzing so taking efficient countersteps in time wont be possible. furthermore asian peoples tend to selfview themselves within the group while europeans are mostly entitled to their egos. add some lack of knowledge and the human stupidity and you know whats gonna happen in europe/usa.

maybe we are even forced to emigrate to africa :D
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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 21 Mar 2020 23:56

AngelofAwe wrote:Image


Here's the next 5 day change. 16.3 on the left, 21.3 on the right.
As for the "1,17 prediction model" we're still pretty much on track. The real cases are about 2,5k ahead of the prediction. We're still on course for 1 million cases on the 30th of this month.

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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 22 Mar 2020 03:12

phpBB [video]


Image

:SOA:
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Paris_Hilton » 23 Mar 2020 19:27

People still incorrectly believe that this only endangers the elderly... unfortunately not so

the average age of people dying from it in italy is 79.5.. not sure about the unfortunately not so..
There are enough people that get a flue are young and get lung damage. Life is like a lottery.. some win some lose

However even if we took no action, would things really go on as usual?
Would the workplaces keep running and the markets remain stable?

Maybe yes maybe no.. and the markets sometime shake for a single fart but that is mostly due to people doing HFT

Ofc we would have some serious problem in the hospitals.. no doubt about that! But if you prepared good enough (it looks like germany is the best prepared country to date).. then YOLO
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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 23 Mar 2020 19:52

Paris_Hilton wrote:the average age of people dying from it in italy is 79.5.. not sure about the unfortunately not so..


I'm not talking about death, I'm considering getting severe enough to require intensive care as "endangering".
There's plenty of younger people on respirators, the difference compared to the elderly is that the young do have very good chances of making a recovery as long as they get the treatment.
Image


Paris_Hilton wrote:Ofc we would have some serious problem in the hospitals.. no doubt about that! But if you prepared good enough (it looks like germany is the best prepared country to date).. then YOLO


Prepare how? The problem is the number of ventilators, intensive care beds and medical staff. You can't magically conjure them into existence within just a few months.
Capacity can and needs to be improved as much as possible but there's no nation on the planet that can get anywhere near what would be required.
Most developed nations have the capacity to deal with maybe a few % of the peak number if no measures are taken.
Even with drastic measures taken and all this social distancing the peak in for example the UK is modeled to be 8x capacity.
(https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf)

Countries with poor healthcare are just outright screwed from the start.

And if we go back to the previous point on age, it's at this point, when the ventilators do not exist in sufficient numbers, that even the young start dropping off.
No nation has yet reached that level of disaster and hopefully none will.

Italy and Spain are the worst off right now and unable to treat everybody.
We only hear about Italy but there was a video of a Spanish doctor(?) talking about how they were forced to take people over 65 off respirators to give them to younger patients with better chances of surviving.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Dr_StarStart » 23 Mar 2020 20:13

phpBB [video]

I am still amazed at some people. Worth a watch, it has english subtitles obviously
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Kriegerseele » 23 Mar 2020 20:15

if they force me to get the vaccine, i wont get it. vaccines are for weak people not somebody like me Kappaseele
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Bronn1 » 23 Mar 2020 23:08

AngelofAwe wrote:Countries with poor healthcare are just outright screwed from the start.

I give you Romania, just wait and see. I hope i'm wrong.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Paris_Hilton » 23 Mar 2020 23:18

Prepare how? The problem is the number of ventilators, intensive care beds and medical staff


Okay from the data that you show.. Explain to me what Germany and South Korea are doing right because atm

South Korea has
ACTIVE CASES
5,684
Currently Infected Patients
5,625 (99%)
in Mild Condition

59 (1%)
Serious or Critical

Germany
ACTIVE CASES
28,480
Currently Infected Patients
28,457 (100%)
in Mild Condition

23 (0%)
Serious or Critical


That does not look like they are having issue with running out of beds
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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 23 Mar 2020 23:39

Paris_Hilton wrote:
Prepare how? The problem is the number of ventilators, intensive care beds and medical staff


Okay from the data that you show.. Explain to me what Germany and South Korea are doing right because atm

South Korea has
ACTIVE CASES
5,684
Currently Infected Patients
5,625 (99%)
in Mild Condition

59 (1%)
Serious or Critical

Germany
ACTIVE CASES
28,480
Currently Infected Patients
28,457 (100%)
in Mild Condition

23 (0%)
Serious or Critical


That does not look like they are having issue with running out of beds


Sure. South Korea has 175 confirmed infected per 1 million inhabitants. Or 0,0175% of the population.
Considering they test far more than any other nation we can assume that this is not very far from the actual truth.
~0,02% isn't going to fill the ICU beds.
Germany is proportionally at about double SK's number with 347/million. Probably more considering more lacking testing but this is still a VERY low number. 0,04% of the population.

We are not in the middle stage of a pandemic, we are in the absolute beginning. These same studies (and also Merkel's official statement if I recall correctly) are suggesting we may see 60-70% of the population catch it within the next year.
UK studies again suggest that the peak in their nation could be 20% of the workforce being ill simultaneously.

20% or 0,04%. That's why your beds are not full.
Even Italy and Spain are only very locally over capacity at this time. Lombardy ran out of ICU beds quite recently. The rest of Italy is not in that situation... yet.

As for why the serious conditions are such a small percentage in SK/Germany that is indeed something there are many theories about.
For example, they could have a less aggressive strain of the virus than places like Italy. Any virus mutates all the time and we know significant changes did happen in the genome already.

Or more likely, especially in Germany's case they could be much earlier in their outbreak. It seems to take 2-3 weeks before people start to go critically ill en masse, the virus had been around for a long time in Italy and was merely discovered late.
It is quite likely that Germany is just lagging behind and will see worse outcomes in the next weeks but we can always hope that's not the case. However I do agree I've found Germany's numbers strange since the beginning.

In South Korea's case it may just be because of their extensive testing, they must have found FAR more asymptomatic and mild cases than other nations.
Despite that however their mortality rate is climbing. It was 0,6% a couple of weeks ago and it has now crept over 1,2%.

Other factors are age. How do the age groups infected differ between the nations? I have not seen any data on that.
Or how do different nations define serious/critical cases? Are there differences in that?
For example, Germany claims to have only 23 cases that are serious or critical... yet 29 people died there today. Seems like an odd discrepancy too, no?
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Paris_Hilton » 23 Mar 2020 23:59

has now crept over 1,2%

I think it is higher. Based on the numbers we have on that page mortality is at 4.359. considering the people that have it but are not infected we could estimate that we are around 3.x %

But we should not forget that atm we have some extreme values which are the ones from italy and then Germany and South Korea

Italy death rate 9.5%
USA 1.2
spain 6.67
germany 0.42%
Iran 7.9%
France 4.3%
S-K 1.2%
Swiss 1.4
UK 5%
NL 4.49
Austria 0.46%
BEL 2.4%
NO 0.38%
..
JP 3.7


So some countries seem to have high some have low. A friend from Austira told me that they had much more equipement in a small area than a whole region in Italy... Also interesting, why does NL do so poor at the moment ?
Btw how in gods name can JP have that few cases ????? like Tokoy alone is +30M inhabitants. I guess they just wear mask on the daily basis and have high hygiene standards.

btw
Today in DK the health minister apologised live on TV because they had refused test kits from South Korea, when they had offered them........ and now we have no more kits.... like i do question myself..


Other factors are age. How do the age groups infected differ between the nations? I have not seen any data on that.

Can we even look at that, could not find any data of germany.
France i have this
Image
"confirmed" "intensive" "death"
Source is official
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Re: Corona autism

Postby AngelofAwe » 24 Mar 2020 00:07

Paris_Hilton wrote:
has now crept over 1,2%

I think it is higher. Based on the numbers we have on that page mortality is at 4.359. considering the people that have it but are not infected we could estimate that we are around 3.x %

But we should not forget that atm we have some extreme values which are the ones from italy and then Germany and South Korea

Italy death rate 9.5%
USA 1.2
spain 6.67
germany 0.42%
Iran 7.9%
France 4.3%
S-K 1.2%
Swiss 1.4
UK 5%
NL 4.49
Austria 0.46%
BEL 2.4%
NO 0.38%
..
JP 3.7


So some countries seem to have high some have low. A friend from Austira told me that they had much more equipement in a small area than a whole region in Italy... Also interesting, why does NL do so poor at the moment ?
Btw how in gods name can JP have that few cases ????? like Tokoy alone is +30M inhabitants. I guess they just wear mask on the daily basis and have high hygiene standards.

btw
Today in DK the health minister apologised live on TV because they had refused test kits from South Korea, when they had offered them........ and now we have no more kits.... like i do question myself..


The 1,2% I referred to was the current deaths/confirmed cases in SK. It will obviously keep climbing as those currently ill reach the end of their illness, some by death.
I really don't know what the real mortality rate of the disease is but I don't think it's anywhere near the 3-4% range.
I said 1-2% since the beginning but it could be even lower depending on how many cases we miss... as long as the medical care is available. We will not know the accurate numbers until after it's all over with though.

Generally nations with low death rates and/or low numbers of critical cases are just very early in their outbreak so we should see if that holds true with the passing of time.
The less testing a nation does the higher the death rates climb too since all we have now is the proportional comparison between those tested and those dead.

I've seen it stated that Lombardy has amazing healthcare, some of the best in all of Europe and it's a very rich region. I do not know any of this myself though so it's hearsay as far as I'm concerned.
Their population is also exceedingly old though.

The Netherlands is interesting also because their cases are "very young", half the people in ICU are below 50 years of age last time I read about it.
Could also be a more aggressive virus strain or the virus has had more time to spread there than what is known.

Edit: Oh I forgot to respond regarding Japan (and other Asian nations).
They have that culture of wearing masks when they're sick normally, even just with colds or flus. As soon as this virus was discovered the populations AND the governments took action based on their experiences with SARS and other epidemics in the area.
They basically know what to do and how to act as a people and as a nation to prevent the spread.
We Europeans are clueless and ignorant.

I don't know if any data on age from Germany can be found either or where it would be found.
I don't even have anything up to date for Finland but this was the distribution almost a week ago.
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Re: Corona autism

Postby Paris_Hilton » 24 Mar 2020 00:53

It kind of makes sens the data of Finland. The most hit are 25-34 up to 64.. So the active working people that have the money to travel.
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